Executive Summary

JPMorgan delivered solid Q3 with EPS of $5.07 and reported net revenue of $46.43B; EPS beat S&P Global consensus ($4.87), and revenue exceeded consensus ($45.57B). Strength in Markets and fee businesses offset higher credit costs; ROE 17% and ROTCE 20% (Consensus values from S&P Global)*.
Mix was favorable: Net Interest Income grew 3% q/q and 2% y/y to $23.97B; Noninterest revenue rose 3% q/q and 17% y/y; expenses +2% q/q, +8% y/y; provision rose to $3.40B (up q/q and y/y) .
Markets posted a record third-quarter revenue near $9B, IB fees +16% y/y; segment PPNR growth across CIB and AWM; segment profits: CIB $6.90B, CCB $5.01B, AWM $1.66B .
Guidance pivots: Q4 NII ex-Markets ≈ $23.5B and total NII ≈ $25B; full-year 2025 adjusted expense now ~ $95.9B (up from $95.5B); 2025 card NCO rate trimmed to ~~3.3% (from 3.6%); early 2026 view: NII ex-Markets ~ $95B; flagged 2026 expense consensus (~~$100B) as “a little low” .
Potential stock catalysts: durable Markets/IB momentum, deposit/loan growth trajectory, expense discipline (with AI productivity), and new $1.5T Security & Resiliency initiative signaling capital deployment and RWA growth; watch wholesale credit idiosyncrasies (e.g., Tricolor) and regulatory path for Basel/SLR .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Broad-based revenue strength: Reported net revenue +3% q/q and +9% y/y; NII +3% q/q, +2% y/y; noninterest revenue +3% q/q, +17% y/y .
Markets and IB showed momentum: Markets revenue ~ $8.94B (record 3Q; +25% y/y); IB fees $2.61B (+16% y/y, +5% q/q) with ECM and M&A activity improvement; CIB net income +21% y/y .
AWM strength and flows: AWM revenue $6.07B (+12% y/y), AUM $4.60T (+18% y/y), client assets $6.84T (+20% y/y); AWM net income +23% y/y .

“Record third-quarter Markets revenue of nearly $9 billion” and continued strength across lines of business; “AUM net inflows remained strong at $109 billion,” highlighting franchise strength .

What Went Wrong

Credit costs elevated: Provision rose to $3.40B (up 19% q/q, +9% y/y), with CCB reserve build and wholesale idiosyncrasies; net charge-offs increased to $2.59B .
Wholesale charge-offs included apparent borrower fraud (Tricolor ~$170M), underscoring execution/operational risk; management flagged potential for more “cockroaches” in isolated cases and vigilance on NBFI exposures (no First Brands exposure) .
CET1 dipped 30 bps q/q to 14.8% on RWA growth (wholesale lending and markets activity) and distributions; SLR 5.8% vs 5.9% prior quarter .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Periods and Consensus

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	q/q %	y/y %	Consensus (Q3 2025)
Reported Net Revenue ($B)	42.65	44.91	46.43	+3%	+9%	45.57 (beat)*
Net Interest Income ($B)	23.41	23.21	23.97	+3%	+2%	—
Noninterest Revenue ($B)	19.25	21.70	22.46	+3%	+17%	—
Noninterest Expense ($B)	22.57	23.78	24.28	+2%	+8%	—
Provision for Credit Losses ($B)	3.11	2.85	3.40	+19%	+9%	—
Net Income ($B)	12.90	14.99	14.39	-4%	+12%	—
Diluted EPS ($)	4.37	5.24	5.07	-3%	+16%	4.87 (beat)*
ROE (%)	16	18	17	—	—	—
ROTCE (%)	19	21	20	—	—	—

Consensus values from S&P Global*.

Segment Breakdown (Managed Basis)

Segment	Net Revenue ($B) Q3’24	Q2’25	Q3’25	q/q %	y/y %	Net Income ($B) Q3’24	Q2’25	Q3’25	q/q %	y/y %
Consumer & Community Banking	17.79	18.85	19.47	+3%	+9%	4.05	5.17	5.01	-3%	+24%
Commercial & Investment Bank	17.02	19.54	19.88	+2%	+17%	5.69	6.65	6.90	+4%	+21%
Asset & Wealth Management	5.44	5.76	6.07	+5%	+12%	1.35	1.47	1.66	+13%	+23%
Corporate	3.07	1.54	1.70	+11%	-45%	1.81	1.70	0.83	-51%	-54%

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

Investment Banking fees: $2.61B (+5% q/q, +17% y/y) .
Markets revenue (memo): $8.94B (~flat q/q; +25% y/y) .
Debit & credit card sales volume: $492.3B (+1% q/q, +9% y/y) .
AUM and client assets: AUM $4.60T (+6% q/q, +18% y/y); client assets $6.84T (+6% q/q, +20% y/y) .
Loans and deposits (period-end): Total loans $1.435T (+2% q/q, +7% y/y); total deposits $2.548T (-1% q/q, +5% y/y) .
Capital: CET1 14.8% (Std), down 30 bps q/q; SLR 5.8% .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
NII ex-Markets	Q4 2025	—	≈ $23.5B	New intra-year color
Total NII	Q4 2025	—	≈ $25.0B	New intra-year color
Adjusted Expense	FY 2025	≈ $95.5B (Q2 update)	≈ $95.9B (implied)	Raised
Card Net Charge-off Rate	FY 2025	≈ 3.6% (Q2 update)	≈ 3.3%	Lowered
NII ex-Markets	FY 2026	—	Central case ≈ $95B	New
Adjusted Expense	FY 2026	—	No formal guide; CFO indicated consensus (~$100B) “a little low”	Qualitative higher

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Markets & IB momentum	Markets strong (record Equities), IB pipeline cautious but improving	Record 3Q Markets; IB fees +16% y/y; pipeline/conditions supportive	Improving/robust
Consumer credit & card	Card NCO guided ~3.6%; consumer resilient; delinquency stable	Consumer resilient; card NCO guide cut to ~3.3% on favorable delinquencies	Better than expected
Wholesale credit/NBFI	Reserve builds; watch C&I downgrades; no systemic concerns	Idiosyncratic fraud (“Tricolor” ~$170M); no exposure to First Brands; secured lending emphasized	Isolated issues; vigilant
AI/productivity & expenses	Investment continues; expense discipline	Use AI to slow expense growth; constrain headcount growth; productivity tailwinds	Execution focus
Deposits & pricing	500k net new checking; pricing discipline; share dynamics	400k+ net new checking; market share strategy intact without aggressive pricing	Steady expansion
Macro/regulatory	Tariffs/geopolitics, holistic capital reforms; “Liberation Day” discussion	Continued uncertainty (tariffs, inflation); optimism on Basel/endgame recalibration	Mixed; policy progress
Strategic initiatives	—	$1.5T Security & Resiliency initiative; up to $10B direct equity	New growth vector

Management Commentary

“The Firm reported strong results… ROTCE of 20%. In the CIB… record third-quarter Markets revenue of nearly $9 billion… AUM net inflows remained strong at $109 billion…” .
CFO outlook: “We expect fourth quarter NII ex Markets to be approximately $23.5B and fourth quarter total NII to be about $25B… 2025 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.3%… 2026 NII ex Markets… about $95B” .
On wholesale credit events: “Wholesale charge-offs were slightly elevated as a result of… apparent fraud… in certain secured lending facilities” . On Tricolor: “contributing $170 million of charge-offs… We don’t have any exposure to First Brands” .
On AI and expenses: “Proof will be in slowing the growth of expenses… constrain headcount growth… there are definitely productivity tailwinds from AI” .
On macro risks: “Heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from… tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation” .

Q&A Highlights

NBFI exposure and idiosyncratic risk: Management emphasized secured structures; Tricolor ~$170M charge-off; “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more” (heightened vigilance) .
Deposits trajectory: 400k+ net new checking; confident long-term trajectory, with timing influenced by savings rates and yield-seeking flows; pricing discipline remains .
Expense/AI: No formal 2026 expense guide yet; flagged consensus (~$100B) as low; using AI to improve productivity while enforcing headcount and spend discipline .
Capital deployment: Maintain balanced approach; less inclined to “buy the stock at these levels” versus deploying for client lending and growth; excess capital used against RWA growth .
Outlook on Markets/IB: Strong pipelines; supportive conditions; Markets strength broad-based across Rates, Credit, SPG and Prime .

Estimates Context

EPS: Actual $5.07 vs S&P Global consensus $4.87 — beat. Revenue: Reported net revenue $46.43B vs S&P Global consensus $45.57B — beat (Consensus values from S&P Global)*.
Prior quarters: Q2 actual EPS $5.24 vs $4.47 consensus (ex. tax item $4.96 provided); Q1 actual EPS $5.07 vs $4.64 consensus — positive estimate momentum through 2025 (Consensus values from S&P Global)*.

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Diluted EPS – Actual ($)	5.07	5.24	5.07
EPS – Consensus ($)	4.64*	4.47*	4.87*
Revenue – Actual, Reported ($B)	45.31	44.91	46.43
Revenue – Consensus ($B)	44.10*	43.98*	45.57*

Consensus values from S&P Global*.
Note: S&P “Revenue” basis may differ from firm “reported net revenue”; we compare to reported for consistency with 8‑K disclosures .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix-driven beat: Broad fee strength (Markets, IB, AWM) plus modest NII growth produced an EPS and revenue beat despite higher credit costs; watch the durability of Markets and fee momentum into Q4 .
Credit manageable, isolated wholesale noise: Provision rose but largely reflects consumer reserve build and isolated wholesale items; card NCO guide lowered to ~3.3% for 2025 on better delinquency trends .
Expense bar nudged higher for 2025; AI productivity should temper growth in 2026, but management signaled current 2026 consensus is too low, implying upward revisions to expense trajectories .
Capital and growth: CET1 remains strong at 14.8% even with RWA growth; the new $1.5T Security & Resiliency initiative signals incremental capital deployment opportunities and franchise relevance across strategic sectors .
Forward setup: Near-term catalysts include Q4 NII realization, Markets/IB activity levels, and any Basel/SLR recalibration; mid-term, 2026 NII ex‑Markets ~$95B anchors revenues, with expense discipline and AI gains a key debate .
Tactical: Continued momentum in fee lines and the lowered card loss outlook are supportive for estimate revisions; lens on wholesale idiosyncrasies and deposit/share dynamics remains important .
Strategic: The franchise continues to gain share (wealth, payments, markets) and deploy capital to national priority sectors, reinforcing premium valuation and long-term earnings power .

* Values retrieved from S&P Global.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary